Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Domestic
Chg (%) (Pts)
(Close)
Market Cues
Indices
BSE Sensex
0.07
24
38,386
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
Nifty
-0.09
-12
11,521
US Stocks have moved significantly higher over the course of the trading session on
Mid Cap
-0.5
-55
15,165
Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has risen to its best intraday level in well over
Small Cap
-0.4
-49
14,824
five months. The Dow is up 0.6 percent at 25,904 and the Nasdaq is up 0.9 percent
Bankex
-0036
-10
33,401
at 7,801.
U.K. Market eked out modest gains on Thursday and the British pound held near a
Global Indices
Chg (%) (Pts)
(Close)
one-month low after Prime Minister Theresa May requested a three-month delay to
Dow Jones
0.6
160
25,904
Britain's departure from the European Union. The FTSE 100 was up by 0.4% to
7,318.
Nasdaq
0.9
73
7,801
FTSE
0.4
28
7,318
On domestic front, Indian financial markets remain shut today on account of Holi
Nikkei
0.05
11
21,619
festival. The benchmark BSE Sensex was ended up by 0.07% to 38,386 at the end of
trading session.
Hang Seng
0.4
102
29,173
Shanghai Com
0.3
11
3,101
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
1,195
768
Infosys to provide digital solution for French Open tennis tournament
Advances
Declines
1,495
1,062
Detailed analysis on Pg2
170
107
Unchanged
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE
3,171
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
47,548
Top Picks
Net Inflows (`
CMP
Target
Upside
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Company
Sector
Rating
Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
FII
(895)
822
(199)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
679
867
27.7
*MFs
(518)
5,097
6,274
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
393
460
17.0
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
256
330
28.9
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,351
1,479
9.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
392
486
24.0
92
16.4
More Top Picks on Pg4
5
10.0
Key Upcoming Events
810
7.9
Previous
Consensus
1.422
7.4
Date
Region Event Description
ReadingExpectations
733
5.9
Mar 16, 2019
TU Central Bank Inflation Report
Mar 17, 2019
TH Exports YoY
0.06
--
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Mar 17, 2019
TH Exports
$22380m
--
Mar 20, 2019
TH Imports YoY
0.24
--
64
-9.9
Mar 20, 2019
TH Imports
$21776m
--
776
-8.1
More Events on Pg7
42
-5.4
114
-5.4
275
-5.3
As on Mar 20, 2019
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
News Analysis
Infosys to provide digital solution for French Open tennis
tournament
IT company Infosys has signed a three-year partnership agreement with Roland-
also called Roland-Garros. "We are truly delighted that Infosys has joined us as a
partner of Roland-Garros. This partnership centres around digital innovation, a
key pillar of the tournament, and will offer tennis fans an even richer experience.
We are convinced that Infosys will help us deliver the tournament's digital
transformation objectives to ensure Roland-Garros remains at the cutting edge of
technology," French Tennis Federation President Bernard Giudicelli said. The
collaboration is aimed at enriching the game by providing fans, players and
coaches with a new experience leveraging Infosys' expertise in digital
technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data and analytics, mobility, virtual
and augmented reality.
"We are committed to helping Roland-Garros further expand its global following
in the physical and the virtual world powered by digital innovation where fans
and players alike can experience game-changing innovations," Infosys Chief
Operating Officer Pravin
Economic and Political News
I-T department, other tax agencies can initiate insolvency
Centre drafts stricter alternative to Colonial-era Indian Forest Act, 1927
Jaitley bats for GST Council type of cooperation in farm, healthcare
FM for GST Council-like institutions to boost healthcare, rural development
Corporate News
Italian superbike maker Benelli plans to set up India unit in two years
Infosys to provide digital solution for French Open tennis tournament
Vodafone Idea board approves Rs 25,000 crore rights issue at 60% discount
Mindtree board defers decision on share buyback plan amid L&T takeover
bid
NCLAT sets aside NCLT's liquidation order of Jyoti Structures
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
6,406
679
867
27.7
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
254,996
393
460
17.0
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,189
392
486
24.0
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast
1,730
61
95
55.7
requirement and
15 year long radio broadcast
Limited
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,884
415
606
46.0
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
214,237
6,680
10,820
62.0
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,389
253
424
67.6
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,642
733
1,000
36.4
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
21,827
105
151
43.8
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,137
256
330
28.9
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by
20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other
HDFC Bank
612,847
2,299
2,500
8.7
income aided PAT growth. The Strong liability
franchise and healthy capitalisation provides
strong earning visibility. At the current market
price, the bank is trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
86,166
679
1,050
54.6
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,516
792
984
24.2
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
Bata India
17,658
1,351
1,479
9.5
of ~16% to ~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly
due to new product launches, higher number
of stores addition and focus on women’s high
growth segment and margin improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
28,755
1,208
1,764
46.0
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline in
credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
16,068
165
327
98.2
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,864
1,235
1,400
13.4
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
45,185
777
890
14.5
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
27,567
645
690
7.0
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
9,961
7,806
9,250
18.5
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Source: Company, Angel Research
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,513
68
120
76.5
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
27,550
91
156
71.4
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,846
286
360
25.9
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,052
1,418
2,178
53.6
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,804
2,229
2,500
12.2
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures
plywood & allied products and medium density
fibreboards (MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR
Greenply Industries
1,809
151
256
69.5
of ~14% to ~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due
to healthy growth in plywood & lamination
business on the back of strong brand and
distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
29,293
145
210
44.8
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
56,700
252
290
15.1
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
Mar 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
Mar 20, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
Mar 20, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
Mar 21, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Mar 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
Mar 22, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
Mar 23, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
Mar 23, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
Mar 24, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
Mar 25, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
Mar 25, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
Mar 26, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
Mar 26, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
Mar 27, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
Mar 27, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
Mar 28, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
Mar 28, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
Mar 29, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
87424
11.2
10.4
15.1
Russia
Micex
2352
-5.0
1.3
13.0
India
Nifty
10387
-5.6
-8.5
-0.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2603
-7.7
-9.5
-23.8
South Africa
Top 40
46141
-6.9
-10.1
-12.7
Mexico
Mexbol
42340
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
923
-2.4
-1.2
-8.3
Malaysia
KLCI
1704
-3.6
-4.4
-2.2
Thailand
SET 50
1104
-4.7
-0.5
0.8
USA
Dow Jones
25116
-5.8
-1.2
6.8
UK
FTSE
7085
-5.2
-8.0
-5.9
Japan
Nikkei
21770
-10.8
-3.8
-3.4
Germany
DAX
11448
-7.2
-10.6
-14.8
France
CAC
5093
-7.5
-7.6
-7.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 02 Nov, 2018
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
March 22, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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